According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), total income per person could decline by 21% if no advances in yield potential are taken up on-farm or if no further closure occurs in yield gaps.
In a study titled Effect of Changes in Population Density and Crop Productivity on Farm Households in Malawi, IFPRI says that even without considering climate change, expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21% compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant.
On the other hand, the World Bank said that Malaewi remains one of the poorest countries in the world, because it is overly dependent on agriculture. As a result, weather related constraints curb agricultural progress and the economy altogether, hence Malawi needs to diversify its income streams, according to the report.
The World Bank says poverty is driven by poor performance of the agriculture sector, a volatile economic growth together with a population growth and limited opportunities in non-farm activities, as figures show that in 2018, growth of Malawi’s real gross domestic product (GDP) was projected to have moderated to 3.5 percent from four percent in 2017 due to lower output in agriculture caused by dry spells and fall armyworm.
Diversification of income streams include the industry and service sectors, which have all suffered because of power outages. As Escom has recently signed agreements with three independent power producers (IPPs) to boost the power grid, a development that will grow the industry and service sectors as well.